Former US President Donald Trump has announced a major shift in trade relations between Washington and New Delhi, claiming that the United States will sharply reduce tariffs on Indian goods in return for India scaling back its purchases of Russian crude oil.
In a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump said tariffs on Indian exports to the US would be lowered from 50 per cent to 18 per cent following what he described as a trade agreement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to Trump, India has agreed to gradually replace Russian oil imports with crude sourced from the United States and possibly Venezuela.
India’s Russian Oil Dependence
India currently imports around 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, accounting for more than one-third of its total oil imports, according to data from global energy analytics firm Kpler. This makes India the second-largest buyer of Russian oil globally, even after Washington imposed punitive tariffs of 25 per cent on Indian goods.
Russia emerged as a major energy supplier to India after the Ukraine war began, offering crude at discounted prices when many Western nations reduced their purchases. The move helped India manage inflation and ensure energy security at a time of global volatility.
Trump’s Claim on Ending the Ukraine War
Announcing the deal, Trump described Prime Minister Modi as “one of my greatest friends” and suggested that the shift away from Russian oil would weaken Moscow’s war economy.
“This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week,” Trump wrote.
However, the full details of the proposed trade agreement have not yet been officially released by either side.
India’s Response
Prime Minister Modi welcomed the reduction in tariffs in a post on X, calling it “wonderful” news. While he praised Trump’s leadership and its role in global peace and stability, he did not explicitly confirm any commitment to halt Russian oil imports.
In the past, the Indian government has consistently defended its energy ties with Russia, arguing that affordable oil imports are crucial for meeting domestic demand. India imports the majority of the oil it consumes and remains highly sensitive to price fluctuations in the global market.
Can Venezuela and the US Replace Russian Oil?
Energy experts remain sceptical about India’s ability to fully replace Russian crude in the short term. Venezuelan oil is similar in quality to Russian crude—heavy and sour—making it suitable for Indian refineries. However, Venezuela currently produces far less oil than India imports from Russia.
The country’s oil sector has suffered years of underinvestment and infrastructure decay. Analysts estimate it would take more than a decade and billions of dollars in investment for Venezuela to return to its previous production levels of over 3 million barrels per day.
“Replacing Russian oil entirely with supplies from Venezuela or the US would require significant long-term investment,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at US Bank Asset Management, in comments to CNN. “But over time, this could pose serious economic challenges for Russia.”
A Longstanding Point of Friction
Russian oil has repeatedly emerged as a sticking point in India–US relations. As recently as December 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured India of continued fuel supplies despite pressure from Washington.
Trump had earlier claimed in October that Prime Minister Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil purchases, but no formal agreement followed at that time.
Whether this latest announcement marks a concrete policy shift or remains a political declaration will become clearer once official details of the India–US trade deal are released.
