Iran’s leadership is facing one of its most serious challenges in years as nationwide protests stretch into a third week, pushing the country toward a critical moment. While the government has responded with force, analysts say the scale and persistence of the demonstrations signal deep public anger and a demand for meaningful change.
What began as protests over economic hardship has evolved into a broader movement questioning the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic itself. Demonstrators across cities and towns are voicing frustration over corruption, repression, and long-standing mismanagement.
“There’s systemic mismanagement, corruption and repression. This is why people want the Islamic Republic gone,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute.
Crackdown Intensifies
Iranian security forces have launched a sweeping crackdown in response to the unrest. According to Human Rights Activists in Iran, thousands of protesters have been arrested and hundreds killed. Authorities have also imposed widespread internet and phone restrictions, limiting communication and obscuring the scale of events on the ground.
Despite repeated protest waves in the past, analysts note that public patience appears thinner this time, driven by economic collapse and declining faith in the ruling establishment.
Trump Issues Warnings
As domestic pressure mounts, Iran’s leadership is also facing heightened scrutiny from abroad. US President Donald Trump has openly expressed support for Iranian protesters and warned Tehran against further violence.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said the US was considering “very strong options” and confirmed that the military was assessing potential responses, though no final decision has been made.
“These are violent leaders, and we’re looking at it very seriously,” Trump said, referring to Iran’s ruling authorities.
However, experts caution that direct US military action may not bring immediate results.
“The regime is brittle, but it’s quite brutally intact,” said Dr. H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Economic Pressure and Isolation
Iran’s economy remains under severe strain, burdened by international sanctions and the reactivation of “snapback” measures tied to its nuclear program. While sanctions are intended to pressure Iran’s leadership, researchers argue they have also weakened the middle class — traditionally the backbone of reform movements.
The country’s regional influence has also suffered setbacks:
Israeli strikes weakened Iran-backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah
US actions damaged parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure
Iran lost a key ally when Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was removed from power in late 2024
“These foreign and domestic pressures have created a situation that is unsustainable for the Islamic Republic,” Dagres said.
Government Pushes Back
President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged citizens not to join what he described as “rioters and terrorists,” blaming foreign-linked groups for fueling violence. In televised remarks, he accused protesters of attacking mosques, markets, and cultural sites.
“If people have concerns, it is our duty to resolve them,” Pezeshkian said. “But we cannot allow disorder to disrupt society.”
The government has also organized pro-regime marches and broadcast images of loyalists rallying in support of the leadership.
Security Forces Hold Firm
Despite the unrest, analysts say Iran’s powerful security apparatus remains cohesive. There have been no major defections among military or political elites — a key factor in determining whether large-scale change is possible.
“At least controlling the streets is seen as essential for the regime’s survival, even if it risks foreign retaliation,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.
Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni claimed security forces were exercising restraint, acknowledging “some shortcomings,” and promised a better economic future. The government has also announced modest cash handouts in an attempt to ease public pressure.
Uncertain Path Ahead
While the leadership is attempting to combine repression with limited concessions, analysts say the depth of public anger remains a serious threat.
“There’s severe economic strain and a broad protest coalition,” Hellyer said. “The regime is still held together by coercive forces, but the pressure is undeniable.”
As protests continue and international attention intensifies, Iran’s opposition believes the moment may be ripe for change — though whether that momentum can overcome the state’s security machinery remains uncertain.
